Does China Have the Upper Hand in Energy Deals With Russia?
In a sense, China can call the shots. Putin is under pressure and needs to agree to things he would not even consider assuming more sane circumstances. That said, those investments (Russia and China) are made for decades on both sides. This means it will take decades of product flowing to pay them off. And there is little alternative once China has gotten used to the flow from the North. What holds Russia back from playing a little blackmail on China once the war is over? It won’t drag on forever. Russia cannot send Eastern Siberian gas towards Europe as there is no connection but what’s a couple of weeks flaring? Decades-long contracts give both parties plenty of opportunity to piss off the other. Not a good basis for business.
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