Is a Truly Cold War Emerging in the Arctic?
Are the resources there? Most likely – most certainly even. But one thing many of those leaders seem not to be able to grasp is the one of a stranded resource. There are many resources on this planet that – if they were located at an easy place – would be worth double-digit billions. But they are not – they are located in some of the hardest to reach, hardest to work in, hardest to transport stuff to and from kind of place. And that’s not free. I was at a meeting once in a country with a lot of gas but no LNG export plant. We talked about the gas price and my counterpart told me that the gas was worth more than 15 USD per MMBtu at the time in Tokyo. I replied that he should then bring it there and sell it there. We were in a place far away from Tokyo and no possibility to bring the gas there so its value was much, much less than the USD 15. Leaders better remember that before they ring out the big booms.
The U.S. and Russia have ramped up their jockeying for regional hegemony as melting sea ice gives humans increasing access to resource-rich Arctic waters.
