Uncertain Certainty: Germany’s Potsdam Climate Institute Humiliated After One-Year El Nino Forecast Model Flops

November 17, 2020/in /by Rudolf Huber

Over the past 20 years, I have seen scores of prestigious institutions make all kinds of forecasts and be repeatedly wrong. In fact, I remember that about 10 years ago I met with a friend here in Vienna on the fringes of an energy conference. A very big name from an extremely prestigious institution was there and the 3 of us went to lunch together. We talked about the gas market and this famous person made some forecasts that I did to agree with at all. A couple of years it turned out he was wrong and mine was very close to what eventually came to be. When I talk to my friend about it today, he dismisses it and still takes the word of the famous man over mine. I have looked into the historical performance of some of those institutions and their record is dismal Why do we still believe them?

Last year Germany’s Potsdam Institute (PIK) boasted that it had a superior El Niño one-year forecasting model, claiming 80% certainty. Today, a year later, its forecast emerges totally wrong and th…

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