Why Simple Models Are Better Than Complex In Finance, Climate, Coronadoom & More

March 5, 2021/in /by Rudolf Huber

Models are dangerous. It takes strong minds to make good use of them without starting to confound them with reality. I have seen grown adults falling in love with a model so much that they forgot the real world around them. When it happens on the trading floor, disaster strikes. When it happens in Climate Science, a virtual world that is used as a surrogate for the real world is created. Never mind the longer it is used, the more it diverges from the real world. If one is not strong enough for using a model (and most are not) then they should be shunned entirely.

Right after yesterday’s post on (again) why rationalism and reason fail as philosophies, and on their severe limitations, I read an article profiling Gerd Gigerenzer and his “simple rul…

William M. Briggs

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Testimonials

Human 2.0

Rudolf is in many ways a human 2.0 – very bright, good at languages, skills that cover the whole value chain of gas and the ability to question the conventional! The last is perhaps the most valuable, even if not all established “experts” want to listen. Frequently, time shows him right. His impatience is refreshing and a discussion with him is always enlightening!

Karen Sund - Founder

Sund Energy

Mastery

I met Rudi about a year ago (2015) when I was working on LNG Procurement with Emirates LNG. I needed very specific knowledge on contracts, market mechanisms and pricing. I tried a couple of sources to get smart, but it was not until I attended Rudi’s workshop on LNG contracts and prices that I really got to the core of everything. Rudi answered all my questions in simple language that was clear and easy to understand. Since then, whenever I have any question or something I am unclear on, I ask Rudi and I immediately get an answer. Not many people achieve mastery of anything at the level that Rudi has on the Gas and LNG industry. If you need to understand, really understand, then I highly recommend Rudi’s workshop.

Saleem Alavi - Captain

Emirates LNG

Knowledge and tenacity

I had the opportunity to share with Rudolf issues coming from a very challenging project, when we did all our best to achieve the better results in an uneasy business situation. I admired his deep knowledge of the LNG market and environment and his tenacity in looking for the best solution always. He is a clever manager with a clear view on the targets. It was definitely a pleasure to work with him.

Vincenzo Maria Emma - Head of Should Contract

ENEL

Inspires further investigation

I first discovered a certain Rudolf Huber while he was wrapping up at Fuel Emulsions International and starting at NeXtLNG. After setting me straight on my quest for the latest innovations with Marine fuels, I knew that the “Pit Bull” deserved special notice. Aside from having a passion for the Energy Business, he also has a teacher’s ability to inspire further investigation. He ventures an opinion where others don’t dare and he does so with wit that few who follow the sector can match. Rudolf champions realistic energy choices and is not afraid of shining BRIGHT lights on the changes ahead.

James D. Shepperd - Content Strategy PR Global

ESET

Tremendous visionary

I met Rudolf at the beginning of 2011, since we were both involved and working together within several European / Scandinavian projects for the development of technology, standardisation and legal aspect in the use of LNG as marine fuel and along its supply chain. Rudolf has vast expertise in, and perspective on, different aspects of LNG technologies, suppliers, infrastructures and supply chain options. He is able to provide a deep understanding and insight into these areas and is a conscientious and diligent source. Moreover, he is a tremendous visionary on the geopolitical, trading and technology aspects of energy, with a special remark for LNG traditional and small / mid magnitude chain. Rudolf has very proactive personal and working approach and is an excellent team worker and leader. Not least, he has a unique persuasive way of writing, negotiating and delivering speeches. I would certainly recommend him as an excellent expert and believe he would be a powerful asset for any company actively working in Oil and Gas. Thank you Rudolf! Marco

Marco Andreola - Owner Principal

Andreola & Associated Consulting

True Africa specialist

I was introduced to and met Rudi in Angola when he started to develop his Sub Saharan Africa network. At the time he worked for EconGas/OMV and he tried organizing longterm LNG supply for them under the unlikeliest of all circumstances. He figured that Africa would be the only place where this would be a realistic prospect for long term uncommitted supplies of LNG. Rudi did not hesitate, started in Africa from absolute zero and spawned relationships and personal friendships with incredible speed. When I met him I didn’t know much about LNG. Today I follow the LNG news on my continent with great interest and a much clearer understanding of the LNG trade. Whenever I have a job that involves venturing into the unknown, Rudi will always be my man.

Albert Namme - M.D/CEO

eXGas, Nigeria

Thrives under a challenge

I worked with Rudi on a key Europe-Middle East LNG supply chain transaction. He is incredibly driven and pushed the deal forward under very challenging internal and external circumstances. He is culturally astute and was able to navigate very successfully through the various subtleties within the global energy community. Also a great guy to work with!

Nomita Nair - Counsel

Allen & Overy

Proactive Business Developer

Rudolf is a true Business Developer. He questions everything, even his own logic and is not afraid to speak his mind. Rudolf had initiated our LNG activities in Africa and the Americas. He was THE authority to go to when issues arose in LNG but more generally when any issue the company did not know how deal with was on the plate. Rudolf is not a typical manager as we know it. He does not need a lot of structure and procedures and is extremely proactive when it comes to problem solving and making new contacts.

David Bergal - Portfolio Manager LNG & Natural Gas

Kinetrex Energy

Nothing but the facts

Rudolf is truly one of the brightest, most knowledgeable people in the world of LNG. He gives you the truth, not a version of it. He is not swayed, he can not be bought by the majors. Trust his word because it is always backed by facts!

Jim Gerber - Director

Terra Commodities Consulting

Reality check

While I disagree with Rudolf Huber on a few things, I’ve learned a fair bit from him., And his reasoning on fuel, economics, capabilities, financial and physical and thermal reality check. And I did not think so 6 months ago. Keep plugging Rudolf!

Eric Levy

Catalyst Recruiting, Inc

Informative, reliable, sensible and refreshing

I love your acute commentary, Rudolf, informative, reliable, sensible and refreshing. Let’s hope more follow your example and we start to realize the full potential of professional social media.

Gil Hardwick - Writer and Director

Environmental Film Group West

Rudolf Huber was featured in those quality publications

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