Did you say your job is safe from robots?
Years ago, I was in endless discussions about robots that would do any job humans do eventually, and in those days, I still had a lot of convincing to do. That’s very different now, as we have the writing all over the wall and the question is rather when – not if.
But what stupefies me is that despite overwhelming evidence that this is going to hit us in our productive lifetimes, most people still seem to think that their jobs will be there for them (and their kids) forever. Let’s take a long, hard look at this.
I am almost 47 now, which means that according to systemic requirements in Austria, I have still 18 years of work to go before I can hit retirement. And those 18 years are just a bit too long to pull through hoping the world is not going to change. Besides, as an entrepreneur, just sitting out a job was never for me anyhow.
So, what’s going to happen during those upcoming 18 years? Let’s take a look at some professions that big masses of people spend their time with today to generate baseload income.
Anyone driving something for a living is going to have his job cut out within less than 10 years, which means that when I am 57 this process will have been concluded. This means bus drivers, lorry drivers, cab drivers but also everything that’s on rails and even on waterways. I would also take pilots out and whoever else has made it his job to steer anything else than himself from one point to another. Fully robotic driving is just around the corner so this is a safe boast. What are those drivers going to do? The last time such change happened in street logistics, it was a change from horse carriages to motor vehicles. Carriage men simply became motormen. Not this time around. The human factor in driving things is gone forever.
Let’s have it with something else. Anyone typing something into a computer in an office building is going to be history. This includes the entire assistant profession but also clerks, accountants, copywriters, translators, and whoever else puts repeated sequences of whatever into a computer. Automated assistance systems like SIRI are already pretty good (I know as I am an avid user) and they are never tired, don’t need a vacation or a pay raise, don’t have a husband or kiddies problem and they are way, way cheaper. Kiss that old status symbol the office block was goodbye. It’s on the way out.
Just today a trader friend of mine sent me a Bloomberg article that traders are going to be annihilated by computers as humans cannot possibly cope with the data deluge anymore. Trade floors – gone and with them all those nice pics from humans in front of multiple screens. Trading happens in a humming box now that is cooled by liquid nitrogen. Much less photogenic – and the box does not want the bonus.
Oh, besides, those armies of worker bees in office buildings needed scores of managers to whip them into shape and keep them humming. Kiss those goodbye as well and that goes up to the top as even the CEO chair will topple. Some companies are already experimenting with automated management systems and the robotic CEO. Don’t think of this as a real robot strolling down the office alley and breathing down your neck. There will rather be automated decision-making systems optimizing business decisions. Judging by the quality of many top-level managers and the horrible decisions they often make, they should not be hard to replace with truly intelligent systems.
And this trend is going to be cannibalistic. Top managers will start replacing their middle management underlings as the cost can be optimized away and strong IT gives them all the info and management capabilities straight. They do this to save cash but one day, the company board is going to save the cash his position costs too.
However, the bucket does not stop here. Professions that needed university degrees are under full attack right now as there will be virtual lawyers, virtual bookkeepers, virtual architects, and yes, virtual doctors that will stand by our side far better and cheaper than the flesh and bones counterpart could ever do it in the next 10 years or so killing 95% of those professions. Your university degree is not all that important anymore.
There is a running joke in France “Question: What does one academic ask the other academic when they meet at My Donalds? Answer: Wanna eat here or to go?”
Oh besides, as most OECD countries are basically bankrupt (just look at those debt mountains) politicians will have to start cutting away whole swaths of the public administration workforce once voters start feeling the real pinch of being milked to keep bureaucrats sweet so don’t count on having your sugar-coated, plush state-sponsored job waiting it out for you. It’s simply too expensive for all of us to bear.
Anyone doing something repetitive that can be optimized is under threat and over the next 20 years this is going to go into juggernaut mode.
Most of the workforce out there are cogs in the system. That’s as true for the worker’s level as for management up to the very top. We tend to see the top echelon of management as entrepreneurs but in truth, they are nothing but cold-blooded administrators pushing indices and numbers. Their entrepreneurial souls have never lived or in the best case died long ago (that’s pretty rare).
A true entrepreneur is an artist, someone who does stuff a machine or computer cannot repeat or derive from something that was done before. Managers on the other side are trained to take a process that is known and optimize it. Their very DNA abhors real creation as this comes with destruction and their utmost goal is the preservation of cash flow and income channels. He who creates also destroys and that goes clearly against the grain of a manager.
This makes managers redundant just like the very people they used to manage so far. One thing to be clear now – this does not apply to the real entrepreneurs who manage things on the side but live as real entrepreneurs. But those are rare.
Think further. My older son is almost 8 years old now. He will go to university about 10 years from now and then – depending on what he chooses to cut his teeth into – he is into years of studying before he can hope to clinch something better than an internship. This means at least 15 years before he can join the workforce but what kind of world will he find himself in when he does so?
We just saw that anything, that can be repeated and optimized, is going to be robotized. This is going to apply to most white-collar professions as well. Medical Doctors, chemists, lawyers, architects, engineers, accountants, economists, pharmacists, … Just pick your academic profession. 80% of them are just doing exactly those things I have described here so they, of course, will be routed as well.
Probably even more so than those mending the plumbing or cooking a meal. Let’s bring back the kids. When my son is potentially ready to join the professional world there is a strong chance that much of what we know as a job today will not exist anymore. That said, we still put our children through a Prussian school model which theoretically emphasizes root learning without even doing so. We give them the worst to prepare them for something that won’t exist anymore when they are ready for the working world. Not smart.
What can be done?
The progressive robotization of the world will eventually do away with all employed labor but it will be a slow march. 20 years from now we will be well on our way but 40 years from now the journey will be fully consumed. My younger son will be 46 then – still far away from any retirement.
What is the working world in 40 years going to look like then? I suppose it will be something like the 80-18-2 rule. 80% of the potentially productive population will live by some form of general income from some public body and will live their life in some form of protected idleness. 18% will do the creative stuff and with that, I don’t mean financial gimmickry and creative accounting. Computers outperform humans in most of those things already today. And 2% will use their capital to try to make more of it in the process. They will have it all at their fingertips as anything that they needed humans for before will be done by machines then.
Pick your camp as the process to this new world is well underway.
Oh, this is only an aspect of what the world will be looking like in 40 years. Wanna know more – stay tuned.
If your son looks like being stupid, send him to uni. Otherwise , teach him to think for himself. In the fast changing world your post portrays, there will be huge opportunities opening up, which the fast witted will educate themselves to grab.
In my 40 years in oil and gas, I took the approach that new technologies are adopted 20 years in advance of formal technical education. Now, at the age of 66, I’ve always been in work and still possess no qualifications in anything.
Bob, my older son is Autist and far away from stupid but I think you got the concept of the article. You are perfectly right that being able to adapt is great for keeping you employed and it’s a great life skill in general. Still, you (and me) are living in a world where the concept of the job was never seriously under threat. That’s coming now and the moment where no matter what amount of adaptation won’t help you staying employed is nearing fast.
I teach my kids not only to think for themselves but also teach them the basic tools a real entrepreneur needs to thrive. Careful with the money, work hard yourself, go with your gut but don’t be oblivious to the reality around you, keep promises and do what needs to be done quick, fair and as painless as possible. Just as my father did it on me – probably more out of family tradition.
There will be huge opportunities – that’s true. In fact – some of them are already upon us.
Agreed, always think of your employer as a valued client.
– Deliver value. We are not looking for “a job”, we are looking for “work”.
– Increasing automation takes away low skill jobs but also cuts costs. e.g. Today, it is safer and cheaper to fly somewhere than ever.
– Automation frees up resources for other stuff. Two decades ago, Hewlett Packard liked to say that 24 months from today, half our company’s income will come from sources that don’t exist today. And we don’t know what those revenue sources will be.
– Uncertainty and instability is accelerating, which makes for more opportunities than ever.
– In such times, one of our best assets is our good name.
Bob, I can only agree with you. Our name is everything we have and even more so in the future when the internet shines a bright light on all our past misdeeds (or not).
Our pal Dave B, who builds training props for technical colleges, had this to say about the impact of robotics.
Moore’s Law holds true for computer systems and onwards to such as the microelectronics.
There is a lot of over glorification to the rising robotics and statements Moore’s Law holding true for all kinds of far more complicated electromechanical systems and including robotics.
A huge overstatement is that 3D printers are able to print out a 2, 3, 4 story building – leading many readers to believe that this wingding printer can do it all from proper foundations, properly insulated, strong wall materials (made out of plastic), install glass windows, put in the electrics, heat and cooling, plumbing, and so on.
Another big factor overlooked esp by wide swathes of English speakers is as to learning resources available in Asian and many other non-Latin based languages. There are of course more resources now compared to say 20 years ago. But there is no doubt that resources in, for example, Thai or Bahasa M’sia / I’sia are far less than in English.
Many aspects are very difficult to translate and able to get the ideas to technical aspects across without being lost and/or very confusing. There is more of a steep rise of English schools and courses in China and many other countries. The more well-off parents in China and many other countries know that for their child to be able to learn more now and for the future (self-learning) that the child must get a good grasp of the English language.
Tech has now made is possible for home businesses to buy “CNC” CO2 lasers to make acrylic signs and many other things. But much of this requires a learning curve and most of the in-depth learning is in English.
Even years from now the higher to high end robotics that can replace more jobs will remain far from affordable for SME’s. Even fairly large companies will have lots of problems with (proving) the ROI.
Justification before any purchase will mean most cannot really afford the even the second best or tech that is from five years back. Those that do get the latest best will see big problems arise when stuff (soon) starts to break down or get out of sync (maintenance problems).
This is only few statements. Much more could be written – but that would turn into a fat book.
Evan (I guess this is your name) – thanks for your very detailed comments. It is clear that the march is not going to be flawless for robots but there is no reason why the prices for robotics should not go down just as IT has gone down exponentially. Plus, automated vehicles just change the equation as this makes logistics patterns that were unthinkable before possible. Having a device that measures your body functions on you (bracelet) and then haveing some smart algorithm telling you what’s wrong quickly is also not a far cry. Translators for exotic languages would fall within the 108% I described here.
There sure is glorification but there is also a lot of understatement. I can see what robotisation does to my own industry for 15 years now and the number of jobs that has gone with the wind is biblical.