The current renewable developer still counts on the legacy fossil energy system to balance out the intermittency they bring to the grid. So far, because of the fossil system but also overbuild in the past, this worked more or less in developed countries and yet, it has already pushed power prices in those countries that have gone out on a limb on renewables such as Southern Australia, Germany or Denmark to climb to stratospheric levels. Those prices start to scratch on the consensus but they have seen nothing yet. As we hit the limits of what we had from the past, we enter new territory in which we will be hit with the consequences of intermittency in a much more direct manner, without the palliative in place. Now we will have even higher prices – not just percentage points but multiples – and additionally, there will be brownouts and blackouts in formerly industrialized nations. People will start to feel what this does to them. I understand that there is a sense of panic in the renewable world as they can see this coming …
 Time covered: June 24th to 30th 2019. The fallacy of external costsA report by the International Monetary Fund says that the world spent the incredible sum of 5.200 billion USD on fossil fuel subsidies in 2017. According to this report, the US alone spent a whopping 649 billion USD – more than the already quite gigantic defense budget.
Several Natural Gas Prices taken on June 28th, 2019
Battery Storage—An Infinitesimal Part of Electrical Power________Will Russia Survive The Coming Energy Transition?Russia has a resource problem at its hands for sure. But it’s not the Energiewende or any other Green program that’s causing it or even making it worse. Contrary what some tend to believe the Energiewende increases the need for quick load balancing for those renewable and fickle sources so that makes the day of Natural Gas which Russia is a big exporter of. Clean energy makes Russias day – Putin sure loves that. There is a much bigger threat for Russia on the horizon though. Russia needs new reserves. Luckily it has a lot of untapped oil and gas. However its in pretty hard to reach places and therefore costs a pretty penny to develop. Many shale fields are already a lot cheaper to develop. History has not been kind to those that have the more expensive to develop resources. Don’t expect every last drop of Russian oil to be extracted. Far from it. ________Can Austria Fire Up Central Europe’s Appetite For LNG Fueled Vehicles?Austria is a country that could be overlooked. Except for its mountains, an imperial capital that stands up the big imperial centers of the 19th century, the music, the food, the – OK, there is plenty of reason you should stop by Austria but its a small country and hence a tiny market. But we are in the middle of the continent and most North-South and much East-West traffic go through. Its an incredibly important transport link for Europe. So, this tiny speck on the map actually matters. That’s one more reason why LNG Europe is based here. Did I mention that Vienna is a great congress city, has taken first place on the Mercer quality of life list that we stopped counting, has a plethora of international organizations here including the headquarters of OPEC, the Energy Community, and the IAEA. End of sales pitch – wanna do something in LNG as a vehicle fuel? Get yourself here. ________Pricing carbon is essential but inadequateWe need some model regions/countries going for the full Monty and watch them. Plus we need to make sure they have no possibility for cheating. If they have blackouts or multiples of the prices they have now, they must have the opportunity to sample those feelings without any distraction like fossil backup power. I expect the first regions, states, countries going for even harsher regimes than now to have electoral reversals in the future which will bring politicians to power that won’t be afraid to do what they need in order to survive – throw all this garbage onto the trash heap of history. We really only have one choice – either we adapt to whatever comes or we reduce the population by a factor of 10 as this planet cannot sustain 8 billion envirofreaks. ________France’s new ‘hottest recorded temperature ever’ is in question – guess where it was measured?Many temperature measurement stations are strangely in a built-up area which is always warmer than the normal land. I grew up in the countryside and we knew as little kiddies that when we went to the big city there was a good chance we would not see snow in the winter or very little thereof. Vienna was always first to lose its snow cover and was always warmer than its surroundings. Which makes for fake temperatures. How many asphalt highways have there been 100 years ago in order to produce that kind of effect? How does one determine the average temperature? I am not an expert in weather or climatology like most people but like most people, I can understand pretty complex stuff if I want to. EXPLAIN – or get used to me not buying your crap. ________The LNG sector is breaking taboos to stay competitiveThere are lots of interesting developments underway in LNG right now – that’s a fact and it has not been as exciting as now since I joined the industry 15 years ago. However, there is also a huge grain of salt as many projects rely on bubblenomics in order to square the circle and it flies in their faces on a regular pace. Anybody remembers Aussie projects writing off double-digit billions as just one example. The most solid ground would be establishing LNG as a fuel for mobility. But this means boots on the ground, little by little work of persuading industries, consumers, politicians and all the others that think they have a stake. This means painful arguing with foolish green groups demonizing everything that does not look like a windmill or glistens in the sun. This means hard work outside posh corporate suites and on the ground. Is LNG ready to go there? ________Gigafactory in Nevada is critical to Tesla’s futureHistory was very unkind with “Bigger is better” schemes. There is an ideal size where cost and the derived benefit are at an equilibrium. Build too big and you lose flexibility. So far, Tesla has not cut a return and as the ball needs to keep rolling, the bubble needs to be inflated to ever more grotesque proportions. This one will hurt big time when it pops. ________Energy in China-US trade negotiationsIf the US started to develop its internal market for LNG by encouraging transport companies to use more LNG as a fuel for heavy trucking and bussing, it would lower its oil use which in turn would reduce oil imports which cost the US more than the US would make with selling LNG to China. Keeping the LNG in the US and using it there makes financial sense. Plus, serving your own market does not expose US sellers to the whims of another country buyer and cleans up America’s air even further. Combine this with a push for small scale LNG in the Caribbean and Central America would open up new nearby markets that would certainly welcome some cleaner fuel at competitive prices and terms they can live with. There is a lot of space at the bottom – the US LNG industry can thrive without China if it wants to. Buckle up … ________UN Warns “Climate Apartheid” by 2030, though $100 Billion per Year would HelpThe whole things reminds me of the selling of indulgences by the church in order to swell its coffers. Another clue that the Climate religion is exactly that, a cult that does not accept any other opinion. Obedience must be blind and unwavering. ________Rent-Seeker Rage: Wind & Solar Lobbies Outraged as Energy Minister Signals Sundown for SubsidiesWhere the hell is those supercheap wind and solar plants. I mean at no matter what event I am being told in no uncertain terms that those two sources are already now the cheapest and that they are unavoidable in the future. So, what do you need the subsidies for when you are so darn cheap? Live up to your promises or go away. ________Canada Risks Becoming Banana Republic Over EnergyWell, if projections are just about right, the US will soon be able to supply Canada with all the energy it needs from its shale fields. Make no mistake, when Canadians find out that they got the short straw in this deal, they will boot those politicians causing this mess out. But it might take a while yet as the public is still firmly enthralled and ready to foot the bill. Who would have told that there might be a chance to reverse the pipelines and instead of Canadian crude going south, US crude goes north. ________LNG plays havoc with Dutch gas and Asian shipping3 years ago there was speculation at what price level US liquefaction Plants would switch off as it’s not enough to cover costs. I argued that pretty much everything is sunk cost and that switching a liquefaction train off is not done on the whim of a trader. So not on liquefaction cost but also transport and even the receiving terminal are sunk cost. The LNG producers play for the market to recover and make a winning on Asia again in the near future and they still might. LNG is flexible and can go where prices are best. Europe is the sink. And it works so well because there is plenty of pipeline gas to around supporting the LNG business model. But its a hard one for pipeline gas as it suffers anything that happens in Europe without the upside of cargo diversion when things are good. ________EU rules set to boost LNG in new trucks could apply in July2025 – that’s right on us. You don’t agree? Well, I am running for LNG as a fuel in Europe for 8 years now and it just passed by like smoke going through a keyhole. There is not much time for planning because you just don’t buy LNG trucks and get going. Infrastructure needs to be set up, fleet managers need to get trained, drivers need to know the procedures, a ton of regulation needs adaption or sometimes be drafted from zero. Because who tells you it will stop there? Who tells you 30% is what they go for. So, wait and pray for hydrogen or battery trucks to be ready by then or do the one thing that works and is economical. Time for action. ________U.S. Forming New Persian Gulf Plan, Enlisting Other Countries to Keep WatchChina should be leaning hard on its ally Iran to stop whatever causes friction. China gets a pretty substantial portion of its oil and of its LNG from the Persian Gulf. The US would not really be hit by a closure – at least not immediately. So, China risks big and in its own self-interest make sure that whatever goes on there simmers down. The US is right to let others do that job – at least in part. ________G20 countries triple coal power subsidies despite climate crisisWhat a perfect example of news spin in order to produce fake news. What G20 country uses the most coal? China. Let’s try it differently – what country dwarfs all others in coal use? China. What country uses ever more coal? China. What country finances new coal power plants in plenty of developed countries through Belt and Road? China – Skip the G20 crap. Yes, other G20 countries use coal too but most of them have falling consumption – most of all the US. The coal monster is China and if you put their annual coal pile beside the annual coal pile of the entire rest of the world, its a bit larger. So, my dear Guardian, take out G20 and put in China in order to put some truth in there. But China is everyone’s darling even when they don’t respect any commitment and waste the air as if there was no tomorrow and the US is a vile criminal even while their emissions drop more than anyone else’s. Fake news is as real as a heart attack. ________Japan, US and Australia begin own ‘Belt and Road’ in South PacificThe best way to deal with belt and road is to let things run their course. Some countries already got burned by those very onerous contracts and there is a backlash. The only thing the US and its allies need to do is assuring anyone that they would protect them from Chinese aggression should China try to back up the contracts by some naval units. That would cost very little to the US but be extremely costly to China. And if Belt and Road is the great scheme helping countries to lift themselves out of poverty, how could we ever oppose this. Countries are like people – they only learn by experience. ________Media Attacks Should Be a Signal to Trump: Focus on Flawed Climate ScienceAttacks by Climate Alarmists have really become rabid over the last 12 months. If I only count the number of times I have been attacked those last months, I assume they are growing desperate. And I get it, they see their options run away. More and more of their models get debunked, more and more evidence supporting much less dramatic developments in weather and climate pops up, and we are moving towards a cooling cycle. Plus, there is a political backlash already now and with mounting costs, this is going to intensify. But the Ponzi scheme called Climate Alarmism needs ever more cash and ever more young souls that can be fed to the grinder as soldiers for the cause. Time is running out and they know it. I would be petty desperate too in their place – but I am not in their place. ________The race is on to decarbonize the 50,000-plus ships that carry our stuff around the worldMuch of our current lifestyle is based on cheap and fast transport of wares over the oceans. This requires ships and reliability that renewables cannot possibly hope to attain. One of the big drawbacks of wind-powered vessels all throughout history was that it was impossible to predict travel times and voyages lasted a hell of a lot longer than today. I am not talking 2 or 3 days more on top of a 10-day journey – I am talking about double or triple the time. Just imagine the cost shipping would put on top of our wares. This would make the additional tariffs proposed by Trump look like a kiddies party. How long until people revolt? ________Volkswagen bets big on its CNG fleet at the German natural gas forumVW is doing the right thing but they are still a bit coy about it. Come on, the Germans are the masters of the internal combustion engine and let’s be real, the internal combustion engine was a massive success and has improved our lives in innumerable ways. I know it fashionable to throw shit on it now but this is undeserved. Natural Gas engines are internal combustion engines – the cleanest ever, the best ever. German carmakers could make a statement by doing what they always did, doing what they are hard to beat at but with results that will make them the envy of the world again. ________Can Civil Disobedience Spur Action On Climate Change?Democracy is the rule of the majority while respecting the minority. That does not confer a right to terrorize to the minority. That’s what those youths claim for themselves. Disrupting normal life, causing excessive losses through disruptions, blocking things that the majority wants by telling and showing them that they will mess their health and their bodies up in case the majority proceeds. Let’s just be clear – there is no direct and immediate threat that those youths are reacting to that would somehow justify such action. There is the vague theory that the planet might possibly suffer if some mathematical models prove to be correct which they never have so far. Just imagine a small gathering of people declares that based on their own evidence aliens will land and abduct all humans to experiment on them – would you accept civil strife that costs billions in delayed projects and damages to public and private goods. Probably not – so why is this different now? ________Why Politicians Who Don’t Understand the Science of Global Warming Don’t Need to Act.Politicians are just blowing smoke in our eyes while they knowingly waste trillions of USD, EURO’s and Yen in order to comply with completely useless targets. Even if all that has been said about Climate Change was true (which it is not) we were in no position to prevent it. So, as we know already now that Trillions won’t even do anything, why spending this money? Because it lines the pockets of lots of people with high stakes in this business? That’s what must be assumed and that’s what really happens. So, either those snake oil salesmen get replaced through the ballot box and we save what we can now or we have the same result for an indescribable pile of debt afterward. Maybe they assume that all is lost anyhow so this further pile won’t change things anymore. ________Early Shale Optimist Sees Another Decade of U.S. Supply GrowthLet’s spin this further – this would mean that all future supply growth worldwide would come from US oil. Not only would the US produce more oil than they can consume, they already produce more gas than they can consume. The journey towards even lower costs on the shale front is not finished by any count and this means that anything that’s not super cheap development outside the US will struggle. The deep Arctic, deepwater, sour oil, extra heavy – they are all permanently on the ropes so either the world starts using much more oil (which makes a mockery of Paris) or the US wipes the floor with OPEC and pals.
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